How UDAF Society builds scenarios

A scenario is a conditional model, not certainty about the future. We expose the assumptions and test how changing them affects the result.

1. Starting data and its limitations
2. Time horizon
3. Fertility assumptions
4. Mortality assumptions
5. Migration assumptions
6. Economic assumptions when used
7. Policy assumptions when used
8. Uncertainty
9. Sensitivity to alternative assumptions

Prefer an explicitly defined baseline, optimistic, adverse and policy-change set, or another justified set. Avoid a single falsely precise future number. Describe which assumptions change between scenarios and what remains constant. A projection is not a guaranteed forecast.

How UDAF Society analyses policy · UDAF Society Data Standard · How UDAF Society builds scenarios