How UDAF Society analyses policy

We separate the problem description, assumptions about its causes and a specific policy instrument. Data → problem → causal model → instrument → expected effect → cost → side effects → evaluation.

1. Data and observation
2. Problem definition
3. Causal hypothesis and competing explanations
4. Policy instrument and alternative options
5. Expected short-term and long-term effects
6. Cost: who pays and implementation constraints
7. Distributional effects: who benefits and who may lose
8. Side effects and unintended consequences
9. Alternatives considered
10. Uncertainty and limits of the model
11. Measurable outcomes and evaluation criteria

Correlation is not automatically causation. A policy preference must not be presented as a factual finding. We distinguish research findings, policy recommendations and advocacy objectives. Any future reform advocacy must state its evidence, assumptions, alternatives and remaining uncertainty. We may criticize and compare policies, but research articles must not promote parties or candidates or manipulate data to fit a predetermined position.

How UDAF Society analyses policy · UDAF Society Data Standard · How UDAF Society builds scenarios